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By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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Today a controversial topic – Russia’s war in Ukraine. Specifically, Russia’s economy and the deep slow grind that I see coming in the years ahead due to Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.
I’ll try to put aside my biases (I think Putin is a jerk and have some Ukrainian roots) and provide an objective analysis of the impacts from the war on the Russian economy. In short, the Ukraine war is going to end up reversing much of the economic gains Russia has achieved over the last few decades under Putin’s rule and the fallout from this war will have lasting and deeply negative consequences for its economy.
While not exhaustive, below are some of the current realities and future implications for the Russian economy as a result of this conflict:
- The war has led to a material loss of human capital and ‘brain drain’ for Russia. According to numerous government and military estimates, Russia may have casualties (dead and wounded) of over 200,000 soldiers since the beginning of the war. Given the high casualties and military setbacks, Putin announced a major (unpopular) mobilization of an additional 300,000 additional soldiers. This led to thousands (estimated at 200,000) of men and women fleeing the country to avoid being conscripted into the armed forces. The war and mobilization has also led to an exodus of skilled workers, particularly in the IT sector. According to an article from the Washington Post, “The Russian Association for Electronic Communications told the lower house of Russia’s parliament last month that 50,000 to 70,000 tech workers have fled the country, with 100,000 more expected to leave over the next month — for a total of about 10 percent of the sector’s workforce.” The lifeblood of an economy/country is its workers/citizens and Russia is experiencing a major exodus of its people that likely will weigh on the labour force, productivity and innovation, and overall economic prosperity.
- Following the early days of the invasion, Russia experienced a surge of oil & gas (o&g) revenues as energy prices spiked. With oil prices pulling back from a peak of $125/bl to $80/bl today and natural gas prices down 80% since the peak, o&g revenues have declined significantly in recent months. As seen in the chart below, o&g revenues are down roughly 50% from this time last year. Also weighing on energy revenues include: 1) the EU imposed a $60 price cap for Russian oil; 2) Western sanctions, which have materially reduced purchases of Russian energy and deprived them of important materials and technology for the critical sector; and 3) Russian oil (Urals) is trading at a steep discount to global oil benchmarks like Brent crude. Currently Russian oil is selling at a 30-40% discount to Brent. While China and India have significantly increased their purchases of Russian energy, overall Russian volumes are down and they are receiving discounted prices for their oil & gas.
- One of the biggest miscalculations by Putin was how much the war would rally (most) countries and corporations around support for Ukraine. It started first with the US and other nations seizing roughly $300 billion of Russian central bank funds held around the world. Multinational corporations then followed suit and as of last count, over 1,000 large US and foreign companies have announced a partial or full retreat from Russia. Critical companies in tech, finance, energy and consumer goods have pulled out en masse. Another major headwind for the Russian economy is getting shut out from the global capital markets. Sure they can borrow domestically or from China and Iran, but no US, UK, European or Japanese bank will lend to the country for years to come.
- Related to this is Russia’s rapidly declining cash position and the country’s deteriorating fiscal position and rising deficits. As o&g revenues decline, the sanctions inflict more pain and the costs of the war spiral higher, the Russian government’s coffers and budgetary balances have worsened. This likely forced Putin and the government to start drawing on funds in their sovereign fund. Since the beginning of the war Russia’s sovereign fund has declined $28 billion, sitting at roughly $147 billion today. Maybe this is why some of the Russian oligarchs are starting to worry about a future cash crunch. Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska warned recently that Russia is running out of cash. According to Oleg, “There will be no money next year, we need foreign investors.” Hopefully he doesn’t fall out of a window or from his luxury yacht like so many of his comrades recently have for that comment.
- Finally, all of these factors and headwinds are showing up in Russia’s inflation and currency rates. The Russian ruble has dropped again and is at its lowest level in a year (80 rubles to the US). As the currency drops this could exacerbate Russia’a inflation problem, currently at a high 11% y/y. Currencies are essentially the output/plug of what’s happening in any economy. Currencies help to capture and summarize the strength/weakness of any economy, inflation, interest rates etc. The weakness of the ruble is a clear sign to me of the numerous challenges that the Russian economy faces.
That’s a lot and I’m probably just scratching the surface. While Russia will benefit from their stronger relationship with China, I fail to see how this can offset all the lost trade and revenues Russia earns from the rest of the world.
In my view, the Russian economy is in a rock and hard place as a result of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. While I don’t necessarily see a collapse, I see a long hard slog ahead for Russia, which will have major consequences for the country, its citizens, and its standing in the global economy. Maybe that’s why Rusia’s central bank head, Elvira Nabiullina, tried to resign last year when the war began. She saw trouble as I do.
Impact on Russia’s Economy from the Ukraine War
Source: Russia’s finance ministry, WSJ
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.
157 comments ↓
Total agreement
Russian demographics also come into play.
fewer babies, and aging population.
Earlier deaths due to alcoholism, suicide, etc etc etc.
Putin has accelerated Russia’s demise.
A generation from now the Russian people may figure it out.
When China invades their empty eastern border regions and the rest of the world doesn’t care.
Chess, match, lose.
Speaking of declining economies….
Is BC walking into the “perfect storm” this fall?
19,000 Mega Project construction jobs that will wrap up in 2023?
https://www.burnabynow.com/bc-news/bcs-energy-mega-projects-enter-the-home-stretch-6875831
Unfortunately, it’ll be substantially more than $50B/yr by the time the Cons have an electable leader & the illustrious Photo-op Minister gets punted.
#LQAtM
An interesting look at China’s “Manifest Destiny” options and why Russia’s “empty” far Eastern borders may be the next domino to fall as the West focuses on Taiwan.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/10/24/as-russia-gets-weaker-xi-jinping-may-forgo-taiwan-to-grab-eastern-russia/
Either way.
Russia is between a rock and a hard place.
According to numerous government and military estimates.
*******
Sorry I had to stop reading right there.
Why was Ukraine bombing their own civilians in Eastern Ukraine?
Russia’s Terrifying new Draft Law
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHnVVMrnre0
It appears from the cheap seats that the Russian Regime has decided that it’s security is worth the consequences of not participating in the US dominated “world order”.
The same decision North Korea, Iran, Syria, Libya, Iraq made etc.
China and India both choose to utilize the benefits of this US led world order while being large enough to maintain independence. With China and Xie taking a new path away from US dominance in the last decade.
Now as Joe Russian I would want the benefits of the US World Order but as an elite in the Russian power center maybe not so much. Ask Kaddafi how moving towards the West worked out for him, explains the increasing nukes in North Korea .
I look at the synergies between Russia and China now and thinking… hmm forcing them together not such a great idea.
It is unfortunate that US foreign policy has been so utterly terrible the last three decades, the wisdom that created Bretton Woods and the Marshall Plan has disappeared replaced by a Neo-Con Military Industrial hegemony.
I do not fully blame the Russians for reacting when a NATO puppet regime was being installed on their borders…
The adults in the room need to start some peace talks to end the killing, don’t think the Americans are interested in that.
IF (and hopefully) the war ends, does the west (Europe) start buying O&G from Russia again or do they divert purchases to other suppliers (ex. Canada). Same with other resources.
I don’t want to minimize the misery on both sides of this war, but will this help Canadian companies longer term (such as Suncor, Nutrien, etc)?
Ryan?
Great Documentary if you can find the full version:
Fog of War – Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nU1bzm-BW0o
Lesson #1: Empathize with your enemy.
And therefore Russia will increasingly have little to lose by escalating to nukes.
Behind the scenes Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are far ahead in preparation for what they see as the big global transformation in power. If it comes at the cost of a few billion nuclear deaths, no problem.
Coming this spring and summer.
PREPARE
Good analysis. All points are correct. Expect a slew of posts from trolls and sympathizers in the comments as is par for the course with this topic. None will have any value.
I would just add that in the relationship between Russia and China, Russia is emerging as the junior partner, and this will have serious negative consequences for Russia moving forward.
IDK
FYI from yesterday’s post for people looking to open an FHSA. I was able to apply for a FHSA with RBC yesterday but don’t know if other banks are offering yet. Hopefully it gets opened so I can stuff it before Friday. Cheers.
@#8 Apocalypto 23
Just when we thought you were finally sitting further away from the microwave when heating up McCain’s Pizza pops…….
Hi Ryan,
Thanks for sharing this insight.
I was struck by the remarkable similarities in this review that can apply to Canada too, even with the profound differences.
Russia:
– oil trades at a deep discount to Brent pricing
– loss of hundreds of billions of dollars in bank funds
– huge deficit spending
– brain drain of human capital
– plunging currency value
This is occurring to both countries even though they occupy opposite ends of the situational pendulum. Russian Bear being the bad guy and Canadian Beaver trying to virtue signal as the good they.
I believe Canada has given away more “billions of dollars” (at the cost to Canadian taxpayers) than the World Police have taken from Russia, so far.
One could postulate that Canada’s brain drain to better tax treatment jurisdictions is replaced largely by immigrant talent.
Now, imagine our success if we kept both…
Cheers, R
REITs on my watchlist. Tag this #SchlockPicker, #Yieldhound.
SIENNA SENIOR LIVING INC.
MELCOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST UNIT
TRUE NORTH COMMERCIAL RL EST INVEST TR
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Oh, my. A prolific USA Youtuber who drives around only the most ‘dangerous’ and run down neighbourhoods …has come to Kanada.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8qcw4gxq5Q
LONDON, ONTARIO CANADA HOODS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-ClDJh0j6w
CANADA HOODS / WINDSOR, ONTARIO
— Winding down the Former First World Countries. Travel will be only for the Elites and Party Faithful.
Technology has been turned against us. $80,000+ Electric car?
FOOD Inflation is set to SKYROCKET esp. when they ban diesel trucks which deliver our food. It’s coming…California is moving this way.
“Transport Minister Omar Alghabra told a parliamentary committee on April 20 that the debate on the need to reduce vehicle emissions “is over” as the federal government looks to implement a number of incentives to encourage Canadians to purchase electric vehicles.”
“If we are serious about reducing pollution, we need to tackle emissions that are coming from medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.”
Ryan, you are being too nice in qualification of Putin.
He is a lot worse then a jerk.
Ordering illegal invasion that brings death, destruction and civilian casualties is an act of the mad man. Innocent people are dying… he is fully responsible for that.
This is obvious to any well meaning and decent human being. However my fear is that we can not claim moral victory or moral higher ground just yet. Unless…. we pay more attention and deal with some of the skeletons and events in our closet that are in some cases still happening.
I think that with economy is quite similar… Our position is strong and logical.
However other side(BRICS) is raising some valid points as well and our leaders are sometimes just outright dismissive of those facts and as a result general public is losing trust.
Simple advice to our elected representatives…
Less politicking(word salad) and more leadership (meaningful conversations even if they are painful).
Rosstat Ministry of Economic Development and EIU data:
Russia Real GDP, Industrial Production Index, Retail Trade, Wholesale Trade and Truck/Passenger Car Manufacturing …
One word, GRIM:
https://twitter.com/vitalyvoronenko/status/1646445526739476480
Oil & Gas revenues down $29 billion 1Q 2023 from their Ministry of Finance, GRIM (by death to russia Joe Blogs):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWJKKkGve_Q&t=92s
If Russia defeated on the battlefield again this year by Ukraine, there will be a putsch. One of Youtube’s better Economists argues when that happens:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2F4x2-rVkIk
Putsch. Before year end. Putin has brought ruin to that country and its people for decades to come.
The Superpower club is a small one: there is no room for 3. China keeps Russia close to it, not for friendship but to take it’s place as the next superpower.
On Pro-Russia celebrities shows like Tucker Carlson and YouTube channels like History legends, are claiming that Russia and China will become military allies and, therefore, NATO will be crushed and humiliated.
China smells blood and the incompetency of the Russian military in Ukraine sealed its fate.
Who respects Russia now? Who will buy Russian military equipment?
China is about to hold a summit with ex-soviet republic’s of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/money/other/how-china-s-inroads-into-central-asia-could-fill-an-economic-void-left-by-russia-counter-us-pressure/ar-AA1abdzv
The Motherland needs not to show up.
91 fishman on 04.22.23 at 3:19 am
Ponzius, I thought Chatboy presented a fairly comprehensive reason for R/E outstripping inflation. Adolph’s thoughts? Not much the way Chatboy is presently presented. Chatboy would have to go through Goebbels.
I wouldn’t sweat the kids bugging out of critical thinking. Chatboy is strategic. When they’re down in the hole building forms & twisting wire for rebar they’ll bone up on their tactical thinking. Learn to leave the strategy for the generals & government ministers.
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Many more reasons, mostly emotional and irrational.
As has been pointed out here often.
FOMO is a good example.
Of course Chatboy does not get that.
He’s a ROBOT.
#94 I don’t know on 04.22.23 at 9:10 am
I’ll belive it when I see it! BUT
No government should be bank rolling any large corporation period.
They can go out and finance it themselves.
The only Incentives should be tax breaks to assist them to get up and running.
These govs have been pouring out corporate welfare on the publics dime for years.
Take Bombardier for instance rewarding failure to the tune of 80 bailouts. Don’t get me started.
The battery green thing is a wash. Do some homework.
I’m on EV #3 and their poor performers in the cold.
That’s another topic.
Hey how about building say building 26,000 housing units!? With the 13bil.
Now that would be a win, huge boost to the economy and something desperately needed.
And the 20 billion spent on climate related issues has had no net effect. Our emissions are higher. So that’s was a waste.
There are certain dangers in the system right now if the pickel the feds are in isn’t handle perfectly could Argentina us. Hope not.
And that 13bill is in the feds account? Ya when they pust the button.
Maybe up your handle to.
IDHAClue?
You need to understand the formula.
California is always the test zone. Always had the harshest emission regs; the worst skid rows (San Fran). Unaffordable real estate (Silly-con Valley).
Sounding more like the GVA, GTA these days?
https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/2022-saw-more-violent-crimes-in-edmonton-than-any-other-year-police-1.6365433
“More violent crimes were reported in Edmonton in 2022 than any other year, new numbers released by the Edmonton Police Service show.”
Holly-weird is the crown jewel of the mind-programming machine. A typical Leftist paradise really.
Actor Ronald Regan was first installed into office, in California.
He aced his lines in the manufactured event “Tear Down this Wall!”. Today the Ruskie bogeyman STILL is being used to control us. (Ukraine action is a cornerstone of this global WW3 – since 03/2020).
Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger was first installed into office, in California. He promptly bankrupted the State.
What a useful elite, he played his role.
FOOD costs are set to skyrocket as the Former First World Countries are wound down. Cheap travel/movement is under global control. Yep California is first up.
“SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — The Biden administration cleared the way Friday for California’s plan to phase out a wide range of diesel-powered trucks, part of the state’s efforts to drastically cut planet-warming emissions and improve air quality in heavy-traffic areas like ports along the coast .Mar 31, 2023”
IDHAC
I’ll add this. There’s 13bill for a successful huge billion dollar company but no money for the health crisis!?
On cobalt…for batts go look who’s digging it up.
It opened up my eyes. There should be a moratorium on building batts until they stop killing people enslaved in Africa.
Btw Where’s my corporate welfare for my company?
Good God no wonder we are up sht creek.
Ukraine is the most corrupt country in the world. On a 2005 trip I was the only non-Ukrainian passenger on a local bus traveling between Lvov and Poland. As the bus approached the Ukrainian border post one of the passengers came down the aisle with a brown paper bag collecting money for the Ukrainian border guards to facilitate our crossing. I think I was the only one who refused to contribute. I wonder how many of the billions the US government is sending to Ukraine now is being stuffed into money bags by corrupt Ukrainian officials.
#4 DON on 04.22.23 at 11:25 am
Sorry I had to stop reading right there.
Why was Ukraine bombing their own civilians in Eastern Ukraine? +++
Well DON, here is what Dmitry Orlov had to say about that:
“The Ukrainian government does not treat the citizens of Donetsk and Lugansk as its citizens: it does not pay their pensions, it does not recognize their right to vote and it does not provide them with passports. It lays claim to the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk but not to the people who reside there. Now, genocide and ethnic cleansing are generally frowned upon by the international community, but an exception is being made in this case because of Russophobia: the Russian people living in Donetsk and Lugansk have been labeled as “pro-Russian” and are therefore legitimate targets.”
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The first casualty of war is always the truth, and no doubt there’s lots of propaganda coming from both sides. But cages are being rattled rather severely at the moment. RFK Jr’s comments about Ukraine, who has really been firing on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, senior officials getting fired by Zelensky after a visit from Mr. Burns of the CIA with other signs of corruption bursting at the seams. Blinken now exposed as part of the Hunter coverup. Kennedy may not get elected, but if he gets heard enough support will erode. And America is in serious need of Camelot nostalgia right now. The presidential election rutting season is kicking off, and now Larry Elder has also thrown his hat in the ring. It’s going to be one for the ages. A perfect storm on all fronts.
As for Russia and it’s standing in the Global community, seems to me the sanctions have failed and quite a few countries are standing with Russia or standing aside from condemnation. BRICS ain’t nothin’, after all. Xi Jinping went to Moscow, not the other way around. The Chinese are famous for the subtlety.
I expect these comments will be ‘ghosted’, but I stand by them.
“Currencies help to capture and summarize the strength/weakness of any economy, inflation, interest rates etc. The weakness of the ruble is a clear sign to me of the numerous challenges that the Russian economy faces.”
And the Canadian dollar is low, thanks to an incompetent government that spends like a drunken sailor and a finance minister that lacks an understanding of basic finance.
Yes, what was Ukraine bombing their “citizens” for over 8 years.
Did you ever hear of the Minsk accord? Decent people uphold their agreements.
What about when Reagan agreed to not expand NATO? That is in the history books but everyone keeps silent.
Next thing. One China Policy. Did Canada not agree to this? What about the USA?
Liars will always be liars and who would trust liars?
When the USSR broke apart, NATO should have disbanded.
But bureaucrats create situations that perpetuate their need just like government which is a bureaucratic establishment. NATO has created situations to create a need for them in false fashion.
NATO is primarily funded by the USA and is there for the military industrial complex and its saps. Canada never intended to fund their NATO agreement of 2% GDP and same for all the socialist EU states/countries. The fact that these countries break their agreements and don’t say sorry but punish the ones that call them out says a lot.
No matter how bad things get in Russia they can always drink the cheap vodka all day long.
Here in communist Canada it now costs over $60 for a handle of vodka( which probably is under $3 to produce) , if drink a bottle a day will cost around $22,000 per year to stay drunk. In Russia they can stay perma drunk for probably under $1000 / year.
#8 Apocalypse 2023
Your comments as stated below are appalling
If it comes at the cost of a few billion nuclear deaths, no problem.
Coming this spring and summer.
PREPARE
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Apocalypse, what google gobble a person would write, shows your mindset in childhood.
You forgot to mention, that British Columbia’s valley of Sasquatch will protect everyone, so do not worry. It appears you read to many 2006 Nick Fury’s Howling commandos that was published by The American Marvel Comics.
Check your bedroom closet by the hour tonight, big foot is magical and he is watching you
For over three years I saw what was coming to China.
I am not a CCP sympathizer. I am of Chinese descent born in the West and visited China in 1990 and 2001 2003. Each time I saw a rebirth of a great nation in the making.
When I reached into the history books and understood the diaspora in the West and learnt of what happened in China in the past, I was sympathetic to the Chinese people and this does not mean the CCP. However there are things that the CCP is doing correctly IMO and one thing is that it is out to protect their people. Yes, there is corruption in the CCP but despite that one thing is clear Xi is there to protect his people.
First, the West wants to make the scenario of Taiwan into a struggle. The real struggle is with the people of Taiwan and China and how they feel. In the end they both do NOT want to kill each other. Taiwanese know that their counterparts are brothers on the other side. ( Just like Ukraine and Russia) Their struggle is dealing with their thoughts on the politics, pragmatism and morality. The fact that the West is not helping them deal with this situation constructively but instead wants to exploit the difficult emotions is disgusting. They know that peace and the reunion of its people ( Just like West Germany and East Germany) should happen in some fashion. From our side, the East joined the West. But it could have the West joining the East in Germany. This is Taiwan.
The chinese people do not want to fight. It is not in our culture to be violent and conquer and control. The history of how China was humiliated by the West during the Opium wars is utterly shameful ( and it is not just the UK but the USA and other countries was into this as well. The USA took about 20% of the profits of the opium war just like druglords. The chinese requested that the opium trade be stopped because it was harming its people but the UK and others insisted they carry on with peddling opium. The chinese tried to stop them but their old dilapidated navy of “junks” was no match for western battleships. The Navy was decimated because of the SUPERIOR navy of the west. This led to the 100 years of humiliation of the Chinese. During this time they were robbed and exploited and looked down upon as dirt.
Now that China is able to build its defences and military power, it is doing so so that a situation like this will NEVER happen to them again. They see what happened to Russia and promises broken by the West. They see the One China policy promises by the West broken by country after country. Should China trust these countries? Would you? The same countries that once exploited their people ( UK and USA). What would you do if you were Xi ? join hands with the liars?
China’s military might is to protect their country and if this means projecting power outwards to prevent bullying, then so be it.
The Mainstream western news will never explain why China NEEDS to do this because it will cause shame on themselves. Russia and China have been lied to and used over and over and they understand who they are dealing with. The problem is that the people in the west do not know and it is convenient not to.
Interesting that the UK has the same inflation rate as Russia. Maybe the UK is a mess or Russia isn’t as bad as we think even with an ongoing war. BTW the US helped overthrow a democratically elected Ukrainian government that took $15 billion from Russia to stay out of Nato. They took the money and then reneged. Strange that Putin was pissed off at the US and Ukraine over that.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/17/ukraine-russia-leaders-talks-kremlin-loan-deal
8 Philco on 04.22.23 at 12:06 pm
Once again, why was there no mention of manufacturers credits in your previous post? A cursory glance of the agreement will reveal that it’s quite favourable for us (and for VW for that matter).
Spending money now to make more money in the future is the definition of an investment, a relevant statement considering the nature of this blog. The government investment into the VW plant will pay off with dividends in the future. We were competing against an economy more than 10 times our size and succeeded. That’s a win.
Although it is becoming treated as such, politics is not a team sport. Praise is due here.
IDK
#22 the Jaguar on 04.22.23 at 12:51 pm
*******
Yup!
I still can’t figure out why Mr. Zelensky hasn’t been replaced for reasons of incompetence, meanwhile innocent people die. Where are the peace talks, what is blocking the cease fire?
Why are countries slowly walking away from using the dollar for trade. The World lacks leadership on all fronts. That much is obvious.
Wait There “Yes, what was Ukraine bombing their “citizens” for over 8 years. Did you ever hear of the Minsk accord? Decent people uphold their agreements. What about when Reagan agreed to not expand NATO? That is in the history books but everyone keeps silent.”
Ukraine has been a free and independent state since 1991. If they choose to move closer to Europe and away from Russia then that is their right. Of course Russia can respond and they chose to invade Ukraine, thinking Kyiv would fall in days, they would install a puppet government, NATO would back down, Russia would be victorious and look to move on to other countries who desire to move closer to Europe. But of course none of that happened and now Putin is cornered and their economy and people will feel real pain for years to follow. We can debate history, politics, the morality of the war etc but it’s pretty clear Putin’s decision to go to war has been an unmitigated disaster for Russia, its citizens and its standing in the world. – Ryan L
#9 I don’t know on 04.22.23 at 11:51 am
Good analysis. All points are correct. Expect a slew of posts from trolls and sympathizers in the comments as is par for the course with this topic. None will have any value.
*******
So anyone that presents additional analysis is a troll. You live in a democracy right?
I only see greatness in the future for Putin. This is my opinion not anything from biblical prophesies.
#32 Ryan L
Of course Russia can respond and they chose to invade Ukraine, thinking Kyiv would fall in days, they would install a puppet government, NATO would back down, Russia would be victorious and look to move on to other countries who desire to move closer to Europe.
***********
Did numerous sources say this also?
Those pariah regimes in OPEC may cut again just to boost oil prices to earn more money for Russian oil exports.
And this raccoon sure looks like it used to work for a pawn shop on Bathurst Street:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03zi1843yb8
We can debate history, politics, the morality of the war etc but it’s pretty clear Putin’s decision to go to war has been an unmitigated disaster for Russia, its citizens and its standing in the world. – Ryan L
^^^^^^^^^^
Yup.
If Putin is a jerk, what do I call my cousin?
Having to rethink the whole axis of jerk-reprobate-despot-annihilator.
#4 DON ‘ Why was Ukraine bombing their own civilians in Eastern Ukraine?’
Exactly.
Stick to Finance Ryan!
As others have said, Russia’s demographics are also a factor that will add to their economic woes. This ill conceived war does not solve any of the issues & in fact has created a host of new problems for Russia. Putin has succeeded in not only trashing Russia’s economy but the Ukrainian one to boot. Putin the Putz – what a legacy.
Ryan: this is the typical Western narrative, and it might be correct. Future will tell.
But, overall, the collective West is only one side of the equation. Big forces (India, China, Brazil, others) are not as certain as you are about the expressed points. For them, even if Russia ends up not winning (it’s hard to see it losing outright), it’s totally worth, as it’ll weaken the US, which, in a zero-sum game, strengthens them.
And not to laud Russia in any way, but they have weathered some much tougher wars during their history. So probably whatever population they are losing (and how many Russian men manage to flee the draft is questionable – yet is it known that Europe is full of Ukrainian men who are of military age but simply roaming around in very expensive cars) is much, much less as to how many they’ve lost during WW2 fighting with the West and against the Germans.
I was hoping for some mention of the asset-backed currency that BRICS has supposedly been working towards.
India and China have both been more vocal in recent years about the emerging multipolar world order.
They clearly already are thinking about the end of Western hegemony as if it were set in stone.
Perhaps Putin did not miscalculate – perhaps it’s true that Western power is in decline and there is more to gain cozying up to China and India, who are willing to do trade without the hypocritical finger-wagging that our Western leaders have a penchant for.
Stop the war? You’ve got to be kidding. You want to stop this war you’d best go to Washington where they’ve been planning it for a decade along with the NATO lackies.
The kid that leaked the Pentagon documents exposed them and they don’t like that so he will likely get the death penalty. Oh, and the US blew up that pipeline as well. Keep the ball rolling.
Putin is no hero but but the war pigs in Washington are getting rich off it.
#35 DON on 04.22.23 at 2:29 pm
#32 Ryan L
Of course Russia can respond and they chose to invade Ukraine, thinking Kyiv would fall in days, they would install a puppet government, NATO would back down, Russia would be victorious and look to move on to other countries who desire to move closer to Europe.
***********
Did numerous sources say this also?
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Say what? Are you actually claiming that Russia didn’t invade Ukraine? Or are we going to trot out the tired trope of Russia as a victim of provocation that just had “no choice”?
Someone earlier went on about the lies of the West, I seem to recall after lining up thousands of troops along the border Putin claiming there was no intention of invading.
The Russian propaganda machine is the biggest liar on the planet. And not even a particularly good one, it’s like they’ve just given up even trying to make their lies believable.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-craziest-russian-propaganda-lies-used-for-the-ukraine-war-yet
RE: #14 Grandv!ew on 04.22.23 at 12:00 pm
Ordering illegal invasion that brings death, destruction and civilian casualties is an act of the mad man.
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I find the terms “illegal invasion” “illegal war” absolutely ridiculous. How is a “legal” invasion or “legal” war any better? Plus, any country can decide what’s legal or not to justify whatever they want.
#32 Ryan Lewenza on 04.22.23 at 2:00 pm
Your naïve sense of ‘know it all’ thought from following the mainstream media is quite amusing.
Let’s stick to thinks that do not surpass one’s level of incompetence.
What we see is a smokescreen for 2 major events happening simultaneously:
1. Diversification of developing economies away from the established monetary, currency and banking model.
This will have profound implications to the life of the former middle class in the developed countries as standard of living equalizes worldwide.
2. The end of cheap energy which will have it’s share of impact on food and goods prices worldwide.
It just happened that this occurs at peak debt time.
And that might not be a coincidence.
Maybe somebody somewhere decided to have the last giant score in the redistribution of the shrinking pieces of the pie by stealing from his fellows (hello credit crises and inflation) for one last big time.
Putin is out of touch totalitarian leader with old frozen in time mentality, who makes giant mistakes and does not understand economy.
And yet China is entirely different animal and the West is pushing Russia towards union with China, backed economically by BRICS and some other notable countries, which is a major mistake.
We are basically witnessing the development of 2 new major competing economic blocks with all the implications.
Now imagine what the world would have been today if Hitler did not invade Russia at the time and did built a lasting union with Stalin.
I am firmly in the opinion that our major future enemies are different and it is unfortunate that we are somehow giving them some strong advantages in an attempt to save what can not be saved.
Hopefully new Churchills and Roosevelts will arise in the place of some current intellectually limited leaders on both sides, who will drive us towards a better future.
#7 Dogman01 on 04.22.23 at 11:35 am
Great Documentary if you can find the full version:
Fog of War – Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nU1bzm-BW0o
Lesson #1: Empathize with your enemy.
===================================
Re: Fog Of War…
Yeah..I watched it when it came out.
At the time I thought McNamara made good points..
However….since then….and after much research …. I’ve realized that USA has had corrupted roots even before its official founding and was designed to be a war mongering machine to take out sovereign nations.
Since its founding in 1776, there were only about 20 years that USA has not been involved in a war.
McNamara was plucked from the automotive sector by the Gov’t to keep the Military Industrial Complex funded.
GOOGLE “Gulf Of Tonkin” and how Vietnam War was kicked off by late Rock Star Jim Morrison’s Dad.. USA Admiral Morrison.
The USA has never EVER been involved in a war that it can claim self -defence.
NOT ONE !!!
#45 kommykim on 04.22.23 at 3:41 pm
A “legal” or Just War is the use of military force according from a decision of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The UNSC can make the ruling that a treaty has been breached and military force is legitimate.
The Charter of the United Nations is such a Treaty. As such, any UN nation can use military force, in self-defense, in case of an armed attack, without approval from the UNSC. That said, a nation can request help from other nations for assistance in self-defense.
This is the current situation in Ukraine.
Russia invaded Ukraine without UNSC consent: Its invasion is illegal. Ukraine has the right of self defense and request military help from any other nations.
You are spot on about this war Ryan.
The conspiracy lunatics on this blog shouldn’t dissuade you from continuing to enunciate the truth.
Other than African despots who wants Russian military garbage, little revenue will be coming to them from that sector.
I personally have no issue with Ukrainian troops testing out brand new US weapons systems directly from US military weapons supply companies.
This could fast track weapon approvals and save the American taxpayer billions.
They have drone planes now capable of completely decimating the Russian airforce in a matter of weeks.
People will be in complete shock how fast the Ukrainian counteroffensive rolls through the Russian army. This is all being co-ordinated by the US army and this combined arms offensive will be highly effective, swift and deadly.
DELETED (Covid denier)
#82 Why are polite anti-immigration messages deleted? on 04.21.23 at 10:11 pm
This is puzzling. Why wouldn’t a Canadian have the democratic right to express his or her opinion about supporting or not immigration here on this blog?
This blog is not a democracy. Nor is it about immigration. – Garth
This is a manipulation attempt. Democratic right to express oneself does not equate a democracy. And while this blog isn’t about immigration, one of its main themes is housing, and clearly immigration plays a factor in the overall conversation.
Canadians’ right to accept (or not) immigration is part of their own sovereignty. Eminent domain, eh?
So find another blog and blame immigrants for everything all you want. Not here. – Garth
Russia is like an insecure, abusive girlfriend/personfriend/boyfriend. They may be hot. They may have all the tools and resources needed to succeed. They may even have a magnetic personality. But they are destined to play second fiddle (at best) because that insecurity will eat them alive from the inside out. At best they will get let down gently. More likely is that a China will walk all over them.
#86 Ronaldo on 04.21.23 at 11:33 pm
#72 AACI Homedog on 04.21.23 at 9:04 pm
Hey Alois…houses were way smaller in 1977 than nowadays…also a factor in higher average price.
—————————————————————
Exactly. And also the many old slanty old timers that are torn down and huge mcmansions build on the lots as what has happened in the lower mainland. A lot assessed at a million with a house valued at 10,000 that is torn down and rebuilt and new value is now 2 million. That certainly would cause the average price to go up.
========================
COMMENT:
As I posted…that post was meant to open up discussion and dialogue.
BTW I agree with Mr PP(shock !!!)….if I go too far with what may be obvious correlation/s..it may be deleted …..nudge- nudge wink -wink.
Acccording to my recent assessment…our SFH “improvement”(built in 1980)….aka the SFH building is worth $100,000…a miniscule fraction of what “the dirt” aka property is worth. Fine with me.
WE are empty nesters…and spouse is thinking downsizing….implying strata…which IMHO via having friends and family in Strata=is R.E. HELL !!!
Moving would entail all sorts of fees/costs/commission/ taxes ETC. etc…..so before we get too old and have no choice but STRATA HELL….probably invest in a few primary repairs and maybe splurge on bathroom and kitchen…(like HGTV RE Porn suggests.)
My point is…the main RE price accelerator is the DIRT aka “LAND VALUE”…..beyond that it is variable.
The British FO and security services would like to see Putin gone because he’s such a liability. Though they know whoever replaces him it is unclear if they will be any better. I don’t think they particularly care about the Ukraine. They just have that commonality. They probably don’t have any intricate knowledge on its history or culture. Their interests will be russian military capability on the field. If China sends Taiwan will be watching too.
I’m guessing the pile of money will start to run out on the russian side. And whichever part of the Ukraine is annexed at wars end will remain poor and undeveloped long after. Billions will be pouring into the Ukraine at wars end. Moscow won’t have anything.
Ukraine (with the help of allies) will win, Russia will lose and fall apart, similar to the Soviet Union 30+ years ago.
This will be of a great benefit to all humanity. To the world economy as well.
Putin is not just a “jerk”. He’s much worse then Hitler. And he is genuinely supported by tens of millions of Russians, who want to destroy not just Ukraine, but the whole Western civilization. The earlier everybody understands that, the less chances that we all learn it really really hard way.
#31 DON on 04.22.23 at 1:51 pm
#22 the Jaguar on 04.22.23 at 12:51 pm*******
Yup!
I still can’t figure out why Mr. Zelensky hasn’t been replaced for reasons of incompetence, meanwhile innocent people die. Where are the peace talks, what is blocking the cease fire?
Why are countries slowly walking away from using the dollar for trade. The World lacks leadership on all fronts. That much is obvious. +++
Competent or incompetent, it doesn’t matter. Washington has been calling the shots since the 2014 Coup, and they’ll deal with him when and as they see fit or hand him back to his Oligarch Kolomoisky. Hopefully it will all come to an end sooner rather than later, with parts of Ukraine likely split between Poland, Hungary and Romania. Maybe they’ll build another wall ( like Finland is doing right now). Odessa’s fate still not known, but it’s primarily a Russian city regardless of it’s current geography. As for leadership, consider our own situation, and as for the ‘world’s policeman’, this current debacle is the biggest loss for face and respect since the Bay of Pigs. The world has been watching carefully as it moves toward multi polarity.
Russia will keep invading nations, if not stopped in Ukraine? Says neocon mantra.
If the hippie generation didn’t get drafted, have a hair cut, and go to ‘Nam to die, (58,000 of them) Chinese Communism was going to spread through the East, all the way to Australia!
USA lost the Viet Nam war, but did the Red Commie Menace continue spreading southbound?
My take will always be, NATO bases crept too close to Russia. The pain is on us.
Mr Disinformation “Say what? Are you actually claiming that Russia didn’t invade Ukraine? Or are we going to trot out the tired trope of Russia as a victim of provocation that just had “no choice”?”
Absolutely not. Russia invaded a sovereign country which poised no real risk to them. But I recognize the argument that 1) the US/James Baker made promises that NATO wouldn’t expand east and 2) NATOs expansion caused concern among Russian leaders. In no way does this justify the illegal and immoral invasion of Ukraine. If Russia had concerns over NATO and Ukraine potentially joining then they should have tried to address those concerns diplomatically. But instead Putin alone made this terrible decision, which I believe will ultimately lead to Putin’s undoing. – Ryan L
Wow,you would think with the casualty numbers on both sides you would see some truthful news reports.
Ukraine will in total ruin if not already, I think Russia will will in the end but what will be left. Sad
So find another blog and blame immigrants for everything all you want. Not here. – Garth
Garth, you are confused or misunderstand what is being said. Ironically, immigrants are the first victims or “Immigration” when it comes to the current housing woes.
No one blames “immigrants” – or at least certainly I don’t. Quite the opposite, I feel for them. Can’t even imagine what is means to come to Canada as an economic immigrant (notice, I don’t say ‘as a refugee’) and to face this cost of living. I work with immigrants, and many are leaving, returning to their old countries. A huge loss for Canada…
Hope this helps.
Wait until oil prices get to $115 to $135 a barrel in coming months. Also, other energy prices like natural ags go up another 50%+ coming soon.
The problem is that Russia had a lot more than Ukraine to begin with, and so it can withstand heavier losses and outlast Ukraine. Without help from the USA and other countries, Ukraine would be toast, and so this has become a proxy war. I don’t see how this doesn’t end in a global conflict of some kind. Probably not a full blown WW3, but maybe a currency war of some kind.
#28 Wait There on 04.22.23 at 1:38 pm
China’s military might is to protect their country and if this means projecting power outwards to prevent bullying, then so be it
—— —
I hate to break it to you bro, but China has no deployable ability to project power. They don’t own carrier battle groups, and the few actual carriers they do have are based on reverse engineered (shocker) Soviet-era diesel powered artifacts with ramps on them. The power they do have – is regional, which poses a threat only to other local Asian nations.
Even if they could cross the Oceans, it doesn’t matter. Have a look at China’s top 10 suppliers. Now have a look at their top 10 customers. Notice any trends there?
IMHO, China’s heyday has already come and gone. Trump, and now Biden – ain’t so globalist. More to come I bet. We already see China understands what’s likely coming. Too late though.
I never knew there were so many experts on the internal political and economic turmoil in Ukraine and Russia.
Say what you will about Ukraine.
If this blog topic was posted IN Russia…..
Ryan would be receiving a visit from the police
But I recognize the argument that 1) the US/James Baker made promises that NATO wouldn’t expand east
++++++++++++++
Is there a legal agreement or treaty signed by Nato and Russia saying that Nato will not expand or is it just another lie to justify what Russia did?
@#59 Paul.
“Ukraine will in total ruin if not already, I think Russia will will in the end but what will be left. Sad”
+++
Yep.
Russian military doctrine.
Pound the cities and towns flat with artillery and missiles.
Destroy the infrastructure.
Render the cities and towns uninhabitable.
Enemy civilian deaths are ignored.
The enemy will spend decades rebuilding.
But at what cost?
An estimated 43,000 Russian troops dead so far. 150,000 injured.
The Russian economy staggering under sanctions.
The youngest and brightest fleeing.
If Russia “wins” …it will be at what cost?
A pyrrhic “victory”.
Putin would have been far better off to JOIN Nato than to fight it.
This is really a childish statement. Seriously, even a fifth grader understands that no dictator makes such strategic decisions on his own.
Or do you think Xi would unilaterally decide “illegally invading” Taiwan?
Gosh, and one wonders about the current state of things in the West…
Russian mass attacks……
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65313367
WWI tactics.
RE: #48 Joseph R. on 04.22.23 at 4:42 pm
#45 kommykim on 04.22.23 at 3:41 pm
A “legal” or Just War is the use of military force according from a decision of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
=======================================
Right… So the dominant nations at the UN get to decide who can invade who… Like I said, 100% made up BS.
Or in other words, “Might makes right”.
I disagree, with respect. We’ve been fed a line from our masters about how Ukraine is “winning” for many months. Now the truth is coming out. 150,000 + liquidated, another 250,000 wounded. Old men, women and teenagers thrown into the meat grinder. Press ganging of Ukrainian citizens from malls, bus stops and off the streets. Sorry, but you’re being lied to by your government. Outgunned and running out of artillery shells because the west can’t ramp up production fast enough. Theinteldrop.org might open your eyes. India and China buying record amounts of Russian gas and oil. Then reselling same to Europe. It’s a game Ukrainians can’t win, sponsored by the west. Let ur rip, propagandists, I’m right and you’re WRONG!
Speaking of Russia. I watch a lot of Russian vids on YouTube. These homebuilt Russian ATV’s are probably the best in the world. Just about every one is double articulated, has massive ultra-low psi flotation tires, four wheel drive, are amphibious, and super lightweight. It’s unbelievable what these things can go thru / float over. Puts my sweet Grizzly 700 to shame.
They go thru miles of untouched, insect infested muskeg and boreal forest – where there are no trails, and likely no cell service. That’s a lotta brass. Built from scrap steel, used truck parts, and leftover Soviet military surplus items. Amazing.
I’ve also learned that every single last Russian Redneck out there wears full camo, presumably every day. Sweet!
I lost my faith in humanity a long time ago.
Are we really better off with growth and expansion that’s unsustainable?
Putin is a monster killing the innocent for his own greed. It’s ironic, investors for the most part don’t give a damn and suffer the same disease looking for an advantage regardless of the consequences.
I’m on the wrong planet.
#44 Mr. Disinformation on 04.22.23 at 3:34 pm
#35 DON on 04.22.23 at 2:29 pm
#32 Ryan L
Of course Russia can respond and they chose to invade Ukraine, thinking Kyiv would fall in days, they would install a puppet government, NATO would back down, Russia would be victorious and look to move on to other countries who desire to move closer to Europe.
***********
Did numerous sources say this also?
============================
Say what? Are you actually claiming that Russia didn’t invade Ukraine? Or are we going to trot out the tired trope of Russia as a victim of provocation that just had “no choice”?
Someone earlier went on about the lies of the West, I seem to recall after lining up thousands of troops along the border Putin claiming there was no intention of invading.
The Russian propaganda machine is the biggest liar on the planet. And not even a particularly good one, it’s like they’ve just given up even trying to make their lies believable.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-craziest-russian-propaganda-lies-used-for-the-ukraine-war-yet
******
Of course Russia invaded Ukraine and lies, who said otherwise? You can’t volley your own ball and then spike it.
There are a lot of Western finger waving experts that depicted Russia’s demise. Of course they would face short term pain. But they are pivoting away from the West as painful as that may be for them and us. This war has affected our Western economies as well. Who is making money off this war? The questions people don’t want the answers to obviously.
Was Russia bombing Ukraine prior to the Ukraine bombing their own citizens. Has anyone gone back in time a looked at Russian military tactics when fighting a large well financed enemy? The weapons advance but the strategies are reused.
If we are to beat the forces of evil how can we do so with sub par thinking leaders.
Syria didn’t fall as Russia, Iran, and China to a lesser extent stepped in. I am not saying the leaders of those countries aren’t bad nor would I live under their regimes. But look ate the collective jack asses running the Western societies. I don’t give a shit about their leaders only the human beings in those countries. Evolution must think we are a lost cause. We advance but whether we evolve is debatable.
Please watch “Ukraine on Fire” (Oliver Stone) to understand the context of this war. Free online https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKcmNGvaDUs
I suppose most of you would refuse to take off your blinders, because a nation with 750 + bases worldwide, responsible for countless coups and regime changes is the real villain here. The warmongering neighbors south of Canadastan. The exceptional nation in their own minds is the only one to ever use nukes on civilians. Or ever. Think about it.
As a heads up….
I am reviewing an interview G. Edward Griffin did with Norman Dodd back in early 1980’s…I’ve seen it before.
,…almost finished.
Dodd was a Banker tasked by his banker bosses to unravel what happened??? in Great Depression.
He was later given a great promotion which he turned down. (aka he had a conscience).
He was later hired by Gov’t to head the “Reece Commission” which was investigating what amounted to subversive activities by elite Americans etc. within the USA.
Quite mind blowing…pretty much explains what is going on now and fills in a lot of blanks
The video is titled:
G EDWARD GRIFFIN interviews Norman Dodd on subversive activities of Wall Street foundations
I will post a link later…
#56 the Jaguar on 04.22.23 at 5:22 pm
#31 DON on 04.22.23 at 1:51 pm
#22 the Jaguar on 04.22.23 at 12:51 pm*******
Yup!
I still can’t figure out why Mr. Zelensky hasn’t been replaced for reasons of incompetence, meanwhile innocent people die. Where are the peace talks, what is blocking the cease fire?
Why are countries slowly walking away from using the dollar for trade. The World lacks leadership on all fronts. That much is obvious. +++
Competent or incompetent, it doesn’t matter. Washington has been calling the shots since the 2014 Coup, and they’ll deal with him when and as they see fit or hand him back to his Oligarch Kolomoisky. Hopefully it will all come to an end sooner rather than later, with parts of Ukraine likely split between Poland, Hungary and Romania. Maybe they’ll build another wall ( like Finland is doing right now). Odessa’s fate still not known, but it’s primarily a Russian city regardless of it’s current geography. As for leadership, consider our own situation, and as for the ‘world’s policeman’, this current debacle is the biggest loss for face and respect since the Bay of Pigs. The world has been watching carefully as it moves toward multi polarity.
********
My last post Garth.
@Jag
To add… it is simply amazing to see folks with their heads in the sand as the rest of the World takes notice in this information age. Even the lies expose the truth. Remember Nuland in Ukraine.
Good write up, Ryan. Ignore the trolls. Slava Ukraini! I look forward to the day we can welcome Russia back to the international community AFTER they leave Ukraine, Putin goes away, and the country makes right.
78 comments ↓
#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.22.23 at 10:57 am
Total agreement
Russian demographics also come into play.
fewer babies, and aging population.
Earlier deaths due to alcoholism, suicide, etc etc etc.
Putin has accelerated Russia’s demise.
A generation from now the Russian people may figure it out.
When China invades their empty eastern border regions and the rest of the world doesn’t care.
Chess, match, lose.
Speaking of declining economies….
Is BC walking into the “perfect storm” this fall?
19,000 Mega Project construction jobs that will wrap up in 2023?
https://www.burnabynow.com/bc-news/bcs-energy-mega-projects-enter-the-home-stretch-6875831
‐——————————–
China does smell blood and Lake Baikal. One of the largest lakes in the world plus certain parts of Russia that used to be China. The two were never really friends so this relationship will not work in the end. Russia is transforming into China’s vassal.
However, both countries now have horrible demographics so we truly are living in unprecedented times.
#53 Alois
As a retired appraiser, I’m staying in my single family dwelling as long as possible. If I had to live in a strata, I’d certainly rent, not own. Cheers..
.
M67bc
@#67 Ironically Wrong
“Seriously, even a fifth grader understands that no dictator makes such strategic decisions on his own.”
+++
You mean like…
Hitler?
Stalin?
Mao?
Kim Jong Un?
Putin?
Xi?
Any other dictator with absolute control and zero conscience?
I think there is not enough credible information from either side, to determine how this will all end.
And it is very hard to completely eliminate personal biases.
The way that I see it (and I maybe wrong):
China is a neighbour of Russia and will not allow a destabilization of the largest Country in the World.
It’s too close to its doorstep.
If this should happen, She could exercise one of two options:
Come to the aid of Russia, or occupy.
Option 2 is very unlikely, because of the size of Russia.
There’s talk about a Putsch. (Soren).
Unlikely, and that probably would first need the approval of China.
And one also has to keep in mind that Russia has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons.
Also, the Russians overall are a proud people and love their country.
And unfortunately, the World appears to be moving on. There’s trouble in Sudan.
Israel and Iran may have a go at it.
And the biggest question of all:
Where is the next great Western leader who will all bring this to a peaceful.
Obviously, Biden seems not up to the task.
And he will spend the next 1 1/2 years trying to get elected.
And don’t forget, Modi will also want a chair on the table.
And after this is over (it will, one way or another), the next step will be arguing over who will pay for cleaning up the mess.
But then again, Chadboy may have this all figured out, already
So relax people.
Hey Kevin # 78- I’m taking your advice and ignoring the trolls, which are many. Starting with you. Cheers!
33 DON on 04.22.23 at 2:09
The main point: you have a larger, more powerful state invading a smaller neighbouring, sovereign state it believes is its own for the sole purpose of subjugation. This is on the European continent, where there is a confluence of military and economic powers. The situation is dangerous.
The invasion has slowed, and now the larger state is resorting to deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure. They have also been making irresponsible threats of nuclear escalation, unbecoming of a permanent security council member.
Since 1945, when millions and millions of people died violently, the need for diplomacy over violence whenever possible has been paramount. This is the main lesson of world war 2 that everyone agrees on.
Moscow has always thrived when it had good relations and trade with Europe, with whom there are many shared cultural practices and beliefs. Alienating the Europeans, then cozying up to China, a country they have few historical and cultural ties with, will have negative repercussions.
Given that, any analysis of the smaller details, almost all of which are fabricated/false or conspiratorial: nato encirclement, Ukrainian corruption, American/cia influence, bio labs, de-dollarization attempts..and so on are, frankly, moot.
Those views find their most fertile ground in the radical elements of society, who already distrust our institutions and are waiting for confirmation of their paranoid thoughts. Foreign trolls simply fan the flames.
Debating with one in good faith is always a positive, but given the proclivity of the other side with regards to the topic at hand, and their insistence on ignoring the main point (while arguing about nonsense like bio labs), there really isn’t any need for additional analysis. Besides, if Russia were to just withdrawal, the war would end and we can begin the healing process. The ball is in its court. No one wants this war.
IDK
A side note, but very interesting presentation. Snyder speaks both Russian and Ukrainian and has worked with leading experts, throughout his career, from both countries. He reminds us that Russia is an Asian country, and that Moscow was founded by the Mongols, while Kiev’s history is European and that creates a cultural divide; and also that denial of a state doesn’t mean that the state doesn’t exist. Enjoy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBz9EeLeQ8w
# 66 – Wow! N.A.T.O. NEVER EVER did anything like that. Except in Serbia, Libya etc. Remember what happened to Mosul, Iraq after America invaded? Yemen destroyed and not a peep out of any of you righteous anti- troll- trolls. Your weak grasp of history exposes your tick tock attention spans, comrades.
The Russians do not recognize taking &/or holding R/E as a strategic imperative. As Priguzhin recently stated, “the aim of warfare is to defeat the enemies army, then you put on the flip flops & take whatever R/E you want.” The Russians fight for R/E that has miles of tunnels & cities deep underground. The Donbas, Mariupol, Bakmut( founded & settled by Serbian salt miners), Sevastopol. The only one left to complete the circle of outposts is Odessa. Huge underground city beneath Odessa. Stalin left 60,000 soldiers to defend Odessa. It took Manstein 5 months to clear. Russia takes control of the Black Sea, fills up its underground armouries with weapons & ammo. Meanwhile I’d guess establishing a no mans land of death along the Dneipper. Mine the shit out of miles of Uke farmland. Leave the Ukraine as a rump state with no access to the sea. Let them go through Romania & Hungary. Oops, Romania; Hungary & Poland just banned importation of Ukrainian agriculture products. The brothers onto death rhetoric didn’t last too long.
As for economic decline of Russia? Who knows? We are now in a war of attrition with Russia. Not just our military/industrial complex, which by the way Russia is winning for now, but economically too. Russia’s strong hand is the lowest debt/GDP of the top 20 nations. Plus they have a real GDP of resource extraction & manufacturing. Not a Bulls**t GDP of consumerism like us. The west’s debt is epic & the BRICS would like to stick the $US where the sun don’t shine. Russia has always kept their i% rate 3% above the rate of inflation. The west is opposite because they have to steal from the old to pay for their endless budgetary deficits. No doubt Russia economy might decline. But don’t be caught with your pants down if our debt & inflation forces a precipitously faster decline than theirs. I personally think the west has an advantage, but not enough to make a sure call. In wars of attrition everyone loses. The winner is he who loses slower.
The Dark Truth of Why Italy Is Giving Away Free Houses
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDlETESajIc
==================================
COMMENT:
Demographics and Logistics = Destiny ?!?
Mamma Mia !!
Competent or incompetent, it doesn’t matter. Washington has been calling the shots since the 2014 Coup, and they’ll deal with him when and as they see fit or hand him back to his Oligarch Kolomoisky.
++++++++++++
President Zelinsky was elected in 2019 with the support of 73% of the Ukrainian popular vote.
I’m curious as to why you think a barbarian trash country invading a sovereign land is controversial
“Who will buy Russian military equipment?”
The Russian government. How? Taxes and freshly printed rubles. Since the rubles will be created without debt it is no problem and since those rubles will support Russian industry it will benefit Russian workers. As for Russia having problems fighting a war remember practice makes perfect.
#8 Apocalypse 2023 on 04.22.23 at 11:35 am
And therefore Russia will increasingly have little to lose by escalating to nukes.
++++++++++++
Russia has a lot to lose if they use nukes. That would provoke a retaliation by Nato/The Evil West and it would be the end of the Putin regime if not Russia itself.
In 1994 Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal. Russia, the US, and the UK signed the Budapest Agreement guaranteeing Ukraine’s sovereignty. Twenty years later Russia reneged and invaded Ukraine. The US and UK are holding up their end of the agreement. And here we are.
Don and REally Not:
You may prefer to live under the thumb of either China or Russia. I would not. Like the quote about democracy being terrible, but better than any of the alternatives, I have more confidence in the west than in the alternatives.
You may be cheering on Xi, thinking he will rescue Russia, but I expect given that Russia’s economy is one tenth that of China’s, Putin has just sold out all his natural resources and will gain very little in return. Just be under China’s thumb LoL
In my view this article touched on some of the major points required to grasp the current situation. I would like to add that In Karen Dawisha’s book, Putin’s Kleptocracy, she provides a startling and highly relevant statistic. The average (median) annual income in Russia, in 2014, was approx. $867 US! Yes, that is per year. (At that time, the average income in India was over $1,000.) Is this the sort of direction we could eventually expect if autocracy wins out over democracy?
Speaking of Trump in 2024 he may be involved in four criminal trials at the same time. That is like playing Russian Roulette with four bullets.
#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.22.23 at 7:56 pm
And one also has to keep in mind that Russia has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons.
+++++++++++++++++++++
So what ?
Russia – 6,255 nuclear warheads.
United States of America – 5,550 nuclear warheads.
France – 290 nuclear warheads.
United Kingdom – 225 nuclear warheads.
Nato has prepositioned nuclear weapons in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Turkey, and The Netherlands, not to mention the UK, France, the US, and all the nuclear ballistic missile submarines at sea.
When I came to “British” Columbia about 43 years ago.
I found there was a lot of animosity towards Germans and Russians.
The term Nazi was uttered on occasion towards me.
Did not bother me because I could understand the reasons.
But why Russians?
They were part of the Allies that defeated Nazi Germany.
I have to say that without the immense sacrifice of the Russian people on the East front, Canada may indeed be speaking German now.
Then I did my research and found the reasons for the animosity towards Russia.
And the same reasons still prevail.
Long after the Iron Curtain came down.
And all can say the same
Hmmmm
The PSAC strikers are complaining that the Federal govt negotiators are “incompetent and lackadaisical in their attitude…”
Govt union dealing with….the govt….
Gotta luv it.
Kinda hope this drags on for weeks and weeks and weeks.
I can wait for my tax refund for a long long time.
Money in the bank.
I admire the brave Ukrainian soldiers, who have been successfully defending their country from the bigger aggressive neighbour for over a year.
A big disappointment is that Putin didn’t get overthrown so far. The frigging kremlinfuhrer should have been deposed a year ago, if not for being an invader then at least for being a stupid invader. His war preparations were garbage and his early campaign failed, yet the Russian public and the ruling groups still tolerate him.
Unfortunately, that may mean a long war ahead. Russian advances stopped and they didn’t take any major city since July 2022, but it is hard for Ukraine to defeat the larger Russian army decisively. If an armstice is signed and is based on the current front lines, with parts of Ukrainian land remaining under occupation – then both sides will be unsatisfied and another war is likely to erupt in a few years.
What should we do in this situation? First of all, continue providing military support to Ukraine, as best we can, for as long as the Ukrainians choose to fight. What’s good for Ukraine, is good for the Western community.
Secondly – if the war ends with an armstice and without full liberation of Ukraine – then do not lift Russia sanctions until they fully withdraw from Ukraine and begin paying the reparations for the damage they’ve done. Some say “sanctions don’t work”, but that’s not true. Even though Russian economy didn’t collapse, their opportunities are greatly diminished and they keep losing their competitive positions, even against their “friends” like China and Iran. Russia is about to begin importing Iranian made cars, and their military is critically dependend on the Chinese-made microchips now.
And finally, Europe should never again fall into the critical dependency on the Russian oil and gas imports. That’s what emboldened the kremlinfuhrer to attack Ukraine, he thought he is indispensable as the energy supplier. A modest amount of such imports is acceptable if Russia gets a completely new government and starts behaving well; but never more than 10% of the total energy consuption.
95 John on 04.22.23 at 8:41 pm
In my view this article touched on some of the major points required to grasp the current situation. I would like to add that In Karen Dawisha’s book, Putin’s Kleptocracy, she provides a startling and highly relevant statistic. The average (median) annual income in Russia, in 2014, was approx. $867 US!
————————
This is exactly the kind of nonsense that derails every reasoned discussion.
Don’t even know how to respond.
This American Affairs analysis atleast begins to address the shortcoming of interpreting the Chinese and Russian economies from a narrow GDP perspective. Their productive a
capacities and resources make them relatively far more powerful than countries with comparable GDP numbers. Per Dalio’s book Russia is anticipating and bringing forward the new world order.
https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2022/11/assessing-the-russian-and-chinese-economies-geostrategically/
Russia? Ukraine?
Beats me. Not my business. Now pullups, Mt. Benson and bird dog training- that’s my business.
Wait, I thought we were trying not to turn this into a political blog?
Anyway more interesting is Bobby Kennedy throwing in for president. Ya, I know, anti-vaxxer. And he’s convinced that Allen Dulles offed his father and uncle.
So either he’s crazy or just stating the obvious, I don’t know which. But better than Biden and I am sure many would say better than Trump. Either way, it should make for good TV. But I guess that’s political too.
But in the end, what happens in the next US election will have a lot more impact on me & Canada than however the Russia-Ukraine war ends, so long as it doesn’t end in nukes. And it will end. Probably within the year. It should have ended a year ago, when there was still something left of Ukraine to salvage. But here’s where we are. The “west” f-ed around and found out. It’s a war where no matter how badly Russia loses, everyone else lost too. Great job guys.
Lots of articles and talk that the war will never end until the US and the West stop funding this war. Thought?
Man…. I can see why Garth calls this blog pathetic. I’ll say it once. If anyone “in the future” wishes to take out their obvious personal issues out on the hosts of this blog, they are digging their own hole. There will be no apologies for what’s coming, you’ve been told.
Lets do a reboot on tone and be civil. It’s a financial blog and still the best there is in my opinion regardless of trolling, lets reset and learn.
In 2021, the U.S. did $1.1 trillion in trade with Europe (and $250 billion with Russia). 64% of foreign investment pouring into U.S. markets came from Europe. The U.S. has trillions and generations of effort, time and history invested in Europe. This war isn’t just about Ukraine, it’s about the security and stability of Europe.
Anyone who thinks the U.S. doesn’t have interests in Ukraine isn’t thinking about the broader U.S. interests of Europe as as a whole and is, can’t say it any more polite, ignorant of history, foreign policy and obviously what made the U.S. so great to begin with these last 80 years… “security and trade”.
So lets brush up on some history. Pre WWII, global trade was a bit of a mess. We had several nations that were imperialist, most notably Germany, Russia and Japan. Because of their ideologies, world trade wasn’t secure. When boats full of cargo left home shores, there were no guarantees that they would reach their destinations. That all changed post WWII as the U.S., surprise to some, wasn’t interested in border expansion but the throne of true power, to be the world’s dominant nation in global trade.
To do so, the U.S. had to offer security and incentive. Both came by way of the dollar becoming the world’s reserve currency. Over time, globalization became what we see it as today… a world where every nation can sell their best without repercussions “as long as they play by the rules”.
It’s been a good run as far as runs go, going on 80 years. But, over time, the U.S. has accumulated baggage via wars like the war with Iraq costing $2.3 trillion, I will remind. Comparatively, $32 billion seems like a big figure for some to fund Ukraine’s first year of war against Russia. The same Republicans and their supporters and enablers, and geldings, eunuchs, war profiteers, war mongers and so forth who thought 2.3 trillion was money well spent 15 years ago, think $32 billion a year in spent on military aid to Ukraine is too much today.
Go figure. It’s no small wonder why the U.S. has enemies. The biggest dog often has fleas as the pack does and as time marches on, the alpha has it’s challenges.
That said, how many times must we see opposition parties and their followers choose every and any old hill to die on “simply for the sake of opposing the government of the day”. ??? Fools, we’ll never learn.
But I digress, lets get back to why the U.S. is really backing this war in Ukraine:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
The Budapest Memorandum (if readers don’t know it, take 10 and do a read on it) was a ’94 agreement that the U.S., Russia and Ukraine signed in exchange for 900 nuclear warheads being moved from Ukraine to Russia leaving Ukraine vulnerable to attack. The agreement was such that if any nation invades Ukraine in the future, Russia or the U.S. would come to it’s aid. France and China were cosigners. This memorandum was breached in 2014 by Russia and has been violated ever since, paving the way for open war between the U.S. and Russia.
The U.S. could have come to Ukraine’s aid in 2014, but the lines are blurred when it comes to ancestry and language in Crimea and the east edges of the Donbass:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Ukraine#/media/File:UkraineNativeLanguagesCensus2001detailed-en.png
(Note, this map’s population was censored with a Putin friendly Ukrainian president.)
Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine in 2022 in an attempt to take Kiev made it clear that the U.S. either held up to it’s end of the Budapest Memorandum, or the U.S. was no longer the guarantor of world security and thus, was no longer be the nation that had the right for example, to be the reserve world currency or dictate the rules of globalization and trade the U.S. has enjoyed without explanation, over the last 80 years.
When we think clear eyed on this, in light of U.S. interests and world security which are in many contexts inseparable, when Russia invaded Ukraine and tried to take Kiev, Russia was at war by proxy with the U.S. and it’s been the case ever since whether North Americans want it or not.
Are we just beginning now to understand why the U.S. spends so much money on military and intelligence at home? Or has over 800 military bases abroad? Or why the U.S., with a $24.5 trillion dollar economy needs to spend the money in places like Ukraine to preserve it’s growth?
We can debate how much the U.S. needs to spend on it’s military and foreign policy etc., but one thing that isn’t up to debate is what happens to the U.S. and the world by proxy, if the U.S. doesn’t spend money preserving it’s position in global security and trade. Best guess is the world without the U.S. as top dog would erupt in chaos and war. We always so love to knock #1 until it’s gone and replaced with something worse than imagined, it’s what we do.
I just recently found out that there is a daily overnight train leaving Vienna at 12 noon, and arrives in Kiev the next day at noon.
I heard that many Ukrainians are taking the train to go home.
Now that their welcome mat starts to wear out.
And homesickness has a strong pull.
I am planning a trip to Austria in the near future.
I may just take the train, out of curiosity.
But I’m no hero.
So I’ll better get more information before.
But it looks like Kiev is quite safe now.
Hope it’s over soon.
…when they ran away in disarray from the Taliban, less than two years ago.
Western memories and attention spans are very short.
Russian and Chinese, much longer.
I agree Ryan with your analysis. Nothing controversial about it. Just the facts.
5% of NATO’s defence budget and stunning Ukrainian bravery and skill is destroying a predatory Russia. Makes perfect sense that the Russian economy is going to pay the piper now.
The amazing thing is that the initial Russian invading army actually had some experience in the field. That army is gone now. Oligarchy is such a corrupting and weakening influence. You wonder about the validity of their pre-war economic statistics.
Anyway, thank goodness for the United States military and the US defence budget. Three generations of Canadians without conscription. And that’s thanks to our neighbours to the south. I hope Ukrainian suffering ends soon and they get to join NATO alongside Asian democracies. Peace for us is assured only if NATO continues to be seen as unassailable.
@#100 Ponzies Puckerpuss
“Don’t even know how to respond.”
+++
Did you run out of lemons?
Unfortunately, some lies of the kremlin propaganda penetrated the comments section. Time to counter those.
“Ukraine did not pay pensions to the seniors living in the Russian-occupied Donbass and Crimea regions”? FALSE.
Ukraine paid pensions, to those seniors who could travel to the free Ukrainian territory from the occupied lands and collect the payments. Despite the low-intencity warfare, travel between the occupied part and the free part was possible in 2014-2022. Of course, not the best option for seniors to travel every month to get the pension, but Ukraine couldn’t administer the payments directly in the places it didn’t control.
“Ukraine purposefully attacked the civilians of the occupied Donbass”? FALSE.
The war between the Ukrainian forces and the Russian-backed separatists was ongoing, both sides tried to advance and shelled each other. Some of the shells hit the civilian areas by accident, but that wasn’t the goal.
And says who? Russia. Whose military mudrered thousands of civilians in the breakaway republic of Chechnya back in 199x. Whose air forces totally destroyed the Syrian city of Alleppo, held by the rebels fighting against the dictator in Damascus. And whose shells and rockets are killing civilians in the Eastern Ukraine right now.
“Russia had to act because NATO was expanding and getting closer to the Russian borders”? FALSE.
Until 2014, Ukraine held a strict neutrality and had no intention of joining NATO. In fact, the neutrality was mandated by their constitution. They only changed their mind after Russia attacked them.
In contrast, other East European countries like Poland, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia rushed to join NATO as soon as they could. The result: none of the NATO countries got attacked, while Ukraine got attacked for trying to remain neutral.
If the NATO expansion really was a problem for Russia, then they could have had a quarrel with Poland or Lithuania or 7 other new NATO countries, but certainly not with Ukraine.
#97 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.22.23 at 9:12 pm
Do you remember the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact? Read about the atrocities of Germany and Russia from 1939 – 1941.
No matter how the Ukraine war ends, the west will never trust or be involved with Putin at the helm. However, the axes are changing, and the closer relationship with China with trade, military, etc… are indeed a new problem for the west and whose trajectory is not clear over the next few years.
105 yvr_lurker on 04.22.23 at 11:32 pm
No matter how the Ukraine war ends, the west will never trust or be involved with Putin at the helm. However, the axes are changing, and the closer relationship with China with trade, military, etc… are indeed a new problem for the west and whose trajectory is not clear over the next few years.
———————
Exactly.
That could turn out to be a bigger problem for the West than for Russia.
Never under estimate your opponent.
104 MRT on 04.22.23 at 11:25 pm
#97 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.22.23 at 9:12 pm
Do you remember the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact? Read about the atrocities of Germany and Russia from 1939 – 1941.
——————-
Of course I know.
That pact was broken when the Germans invaded Russia.
And the Germans were stopped in Stalingrad.
Some estimates claim that the Germans lost 800,000 soldiers.
5 of my mother’s brothers among them.
They were Austrians, conscripted into the Wehrmacht.
Russian casualties were said to be in the millions.
That was the beginning of the end of WWII in Europe.
Same happened to Napoleon.
Enjoyed your piece by the way Ryan, decent economic summary. When you mentioned you were probably just scratching the surface, I thought it was a humble soliloquy inferring that you’ve talked yourself towards the personal outer limits of the context (finances) of the topic of the day. Thus, I found no fault in what you’ve said, critic that I am, other than perhaps disagreeing with you in terms of Russia being better off with China. I don’t think that will end well for Russia over time and Russia will have to live with the bed they’ve made because Russia’s burned bridges here. Russia will have far fewer trading choices going forward and that lack of leverage will work against them.
I’m in full agreement that this war in Ukraine will cost Russia dearly economically. Russia is a nation in serious decline in every way one can imagine from trade relations and intel to development and growth. Some fundamental parts of their economy are in fact, breaking down. Russia’s population pyramid needs a mention here:
https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/
Readers who have seen enough pyramids in their lifetimes will know this one to be abysmal. Russia’s current life expectancy is 70 years and due to war, dropping. These are Russian numbers btw and not to be trusted, meaning it’ll be worse than what we see. Add the brain drains and the youth rightfully dodging war… none of this is a good look for Russia’s future. Take away the tech and trade along with the youth, this is how nations lose their relevancy.
Militarily, Russia looks incompetent and dis-functional, like it’s an organization of drunks and criminals largely because it is. This war was supposed to be a big mismatch by scale but, y’know… it Russia.
When you say “pariah” Ryan, it’s no exaggeration. Russia didn’t just lose face by invading and doing so poorly militarily putting Russia’s legacy of corruption and hubris on display for all to see, or the ease as to which Russia burned its bridges with the west raising eyebrows to anyone else it trades with… it’s the fascist cruelty with which Russia has waged war on it’s supposed “brothers” in Ukraine.
Anyone who thinks that torture chambers in every town, village and city complete with mass graves is cool or just… that this isn’t a war worth waging based on values alone… readers should warm up to the idea that there’s no less than 250,000 dead civilians in Ukraine. There is at least that militarily meaning there’s a half a mil dead from the war in Ukraine, but I think it’s more like 600,000 and counting.
Ukraine’s numbers have Russian military dead at 185k as of yesterday. We think that number sounds high, but 40k could be convicts alone. Wounded can be 2.5 to 3x the total. Russia began with 250k, mobilized 300 more, are mobilizing again as we speak, maybe a half a mil this time but Russia won’t tell anyone the numbers, just make it hard for anyone to leave or have a life.
Some say Ukraine’s death count of Russian casualties is a high ball number, but if there is a nation outside of the states that can best ball park it, it is Ukraine. This is a bloody conflict. Its human tolls can’t be understated. There are 8 million Ukrainian refugees living outside of Ukraine at this point.
I just want to say to readers and it’s important to understand this, Russia needs to gin up support for the war. They aren’t going to get that support from anti war folks or people with virtues. This leaves them support from those who don’t have virtues or those who are easily led. Those with nationalist pride, those who discriminate by thinking Russians are better than Ukrainians or Ukrainians are inhuman or Nazi’s. Russians who take pride in the scale of their nation, the size of their land and bombs and military and what it took to get them to scale, it’s fairly telegraphed at this point.
Russians were proud of their stance against Nazi Germany, so it only so follow that ginning up support for an attack against Ukraine would be to dehumanize Ukrainians as Nazi’s. Oh, and why not gays or anything else one can call Ukrainians to justify invading them. Anything but equal. So, get the haters and the discriminators and the priders to support. And all the rest, just lie to them. When the lies get found out, “we are committed now, we have to see it through, its about the survival of Russia”. It’s all lies in the end, but that’s what it takes to generate support for a war like this because it’s an unjust invasion, and a slaughter at that.
And here’s the sick part. As a strategist, one doesn’t have be a hater or discriminate or be the racist or mysogynist, or have nationalist pride or be the antithesis of virtue. One doesn’t have to swallow one’s own koolaid or get high on one’s own supply. But it sure does make it easier to know the sheep right? All the strategist has to do is come up with a plan to win.
The strategist knows all too well that most of us are sheep and are easily led, sheep only too willing to let someone else do the heavy lifting when it comes to thinking and swallow the policy that politicians serve.
All the strategist has to do is come up with strategy to win. Without even getting the mental or physical hands dirty. Zero sum game. And some, like say a Russian strategist like Putin will cook up a plan to invade and take Ukraine and think it will work just like Hitler and Mussolini thought it would for them and so on but it’s a failed strategy and that’s the point. All one has to do is to not fall in love with one’s own opinions and argue both sides of the equation and learn from history.
As Napoleon Bonaparte once said, “In war, the moral is to the physical as 3 is to 1”.
Re: #50 Wait There on 04.22.23 at 4:50 pm
DELETED (Covid denier)
Pardon my ignorance, what is covid?
After reading all posts above, I do realize that russian propaganda machine has actually won informational battle in Canada and beyond. Too many people are misled by that disinformation.
Re: #102 Sail Away on 04.22.23 at 9:54 pm
Russia? Ukraine? Beats me. Not my business.
Myopia?
As they say, if you are not interested in politics(war), then
the politics (war) will sooner or later be interested in you.
As always the majority and those who lead them are always wrong and sometimes that can be fatal.
A few years back wifey leaves for the weekend so off I go to have a couple or beers. Meet an old friend and after ten beers and solving every problem that currently exists in the world he looks at me and says “ya know what the problem with these kids is today?, they don’t like to fight” and starts starring down guys who look like they just came off the UFC circuit. Remembering only too well what it feels like to be knocked out cold by a solid right hand I quickly called a cab and got my butt outta there. He stayed. My point is some folks just like to fight. This whole war thing isn’t always just political but much of it is just human nature. It’s what we do.
The Ruskies have always been gluttons for punishment.
Gulags, Siberia, Lenin, Stalin, Bolsheviks, communists, vodka alcoholics, mobsters, and Cossacks.
After WW2, they seem to have drifted to the wrong side of history.
Trouble makers.
#30 I don’t know on 04.22.23 at 1:46 pm
Give it up bro.
Are you running a multi million dollar business?
I built 5 succful companies.
I can’t run a deficit for very long legally. You know why? Nope you don’t.
How about that money going into something really productive.
You don’t know Jack crap about anything.
My income $40k a month for a reason.
You see when the shtf I have 6 figures too grab sales on houses the stock market or whatever.
It ain’t the govs money fool and they are the worst business advisers on the planet.
Spending your way into prosperity does not work…they been doing it for years and here we are.
Can you afford 15$ bread? I can. Or $20 works.
Stop using money inefficiently T2!!!
Batteries are the last thing we need RIGHT now.
Get back to your hotdog stand. Good God give it up IDHAC.
You make me laugh. Or at least a knee slapping head shaker.
Sailo I was philski go back 2 plus years read my predictions. Nailed it for real.
Cheers
I nailed it.
How much did it cost Mr. Musk to build a giga factory? Under 13B?
So IDHAC
Which part on health care or housing don’t you understand?
Wait 5 years and see what this place looks like trying to absorb 500,000 people a year.
The cost benefit analysis of batteries offsetting carbon vs flooding the lands with humans.
Lol
Your a Gass!
@#106 Ponzies promises
“But it looks like Kiev is quite safe now.”
+++
It might not be a great idea.
Ukrainians might not appreciate macabre “looky loo” tourists.
But more importantly.
May “tank season” starts in just over one week.
Russian military strategy calls for indiscriminate bombing of civilian centers to create panic and chaos.
And after a week or so of that.
I fully expect the good old tried and true mass troop attacks they so cherish based on their WWI, WWII and WWIII(?) strategies thus far.
Mass casualties mean nothing to Russian leaders.
Russian generals’ and their venal dictator Putin sleep very well …every night…..
Its a shame the Russian people put up with them.
Steven Rowlandson “Who will buy Russian military equipment? The Russian government. How? Taxes and freshly printed rubles. Since the rubles will be created without debt it is no problem and since those rubles will support Russian industry it will benefit Russian workers. As for Russia having problems fighting a war remember practice makes perfect.”
It’s not that easy. Mass printing of any currency can and often does lead to big inflation. Printing rubles would drive its currency even lower, which in turn will push inflation even higher. Every action has a reaction. – Ryan L
@#MRT
“Do you remember the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact? Read about the atrocities of Germany and Russia from 1939 – 1941.”
++++
Yeah.
The dictator Stalin and the dictator Putin carving up eastern Europe…..
I guess commenter #67 ( #107?) that assumes dictators “make no strategic decisions” skipped history class that day.
Or they’re a pro Putin Russian troll.
I guess the biggest difference between Russian leaders and Western leaders is the western voters will protest 100 dead soldiers as opposed to the sheeple in Russia that will except 100,000, 1,000,000, 10,000,000 dead… if the dictatorship tells them its for their “survival” as a people.
Russia. 1000 years of servitude under the Czars, the Communists, the Putin.
I guess it comes naturally.
Financial okay, but real economic impact of the war is combined goods export of the 3 belligerents Belarus, Ukraine and Russia as all can fade to zero or import. From Peter Zeihan the combined world largest exports are:
#1
Natural gas
Uranium
Neon (to make semiconductors)
Processed nickel
Semi-finished iron
Wheat
Fertilizer
Potash
#2
Crude oil
Refined oil products
Platinum group metals
Refined copper
Steel
Oil seeds
Ammonia
Sawn wood
#3
Coal
Aluminum
Gas turbines
Titanium (aircraft)
Bill Maher’s Cojones Awards for standing up to cancel culture.
Who knows? A little more of this and maybe we can get back to ridiculing the overly-sensitive as is right and proper.
https://twitter.com/billmaher/status/1649614385730686977?s=46&t=LmXevGnAzU7hg1rUUtvwIA
#117 Philco on 04.23.23 at 9:03am
Sailo I was philski go back 2 plus years read my predictions. Nailed it for real.
Cheers
I nailed it.
—————
Good work. I would have held anyway, though, as Elon and I have a symbiotic relationship where we pass money back and forth as needed. I was a buyer again this last week.
Well I guess we can expect a lot more Russian speaking people in Canada over the next few month.
Welcome one and all.
what a clown show in russia.
such lowlifes.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/22/alcohol-and-prostitutes-wagner-convicts-pardoned-by-putin-return-to-terrorise-home-towns
@#129 sail Away
“A little more of this and maybe we can get back to ridiculing the overly-sensitive as is right and proper.”
+++
When did we stop ridiculing overly sensitive “peoplekind”..?
@#129 Sail Away on 04.23.23 at 10:08 am
Bill Maher’s Cojones Awards for standing up to cancel culture.
Who knows? A little more of this and maybe we can get back to ridiculing the overly-sensitive as is right and proper.
https://twitter.com/billmaher/status/1649614385730686977?s=46&t=LmXevGnAzU7hg1rUUtvwIA
++++++++++++++++++++++
Maher’s been spot on as usual with his critiques.
Canada’s National Debt.
https://www.debtclock.ca/
Increasing by $1,000.00 a second.
Increasing by $144,000,000.00 per 24 hours.
Thank the Liberals for your obscene debt/ tax burden.
From:
Der Spiegel
Entrussifizierung« der Ukraine
Selenskyj unterzeichnet Gesetze zum Verbot russischer Ortsnamen
Ein Drittel aller Ukrainer haben Russisch als Muttersprache – auch Wolodymyr Selenskyj. Jetzt aber hat der Präsident neue Gesetze unterzeichnet: Russische Ortsnamen sollen verboten werden, Staatsbürger müssen Ukrainisch können.
————————
A third of Ukrainians have Russian as mother tongue.
Even Selensky.
Now he signed off on a law that “verbotens” all Russian city and village names.
And all Citizens must know how to speak Ukrainian.
Destroying the kitchen while fighting over a piece of pie is a lesson never learned by humanity over and over
@#136 Ponzies popularity
I’m sure the locals in Kyiv will love hearing your Ukrainian observations and criticisms.
Enjoy the train ride back to Vienna.
You are both not only deluded but corrupt as well.
Russia has singled out the true leaders of USSA not Biden as an EXISTENTIAL THREAT to their society and country. Weather their country is good or bad it’s irrelevant.
The WEST DEGENERATE MODEL has ceased to be what people from normal countries aspires to become.
If I were you I would stick to the kindergarten financial level advice you generously douse on unsuspecting victims.
Still mocking intelligent people who preferred not to take experimental genetic treatment after scientific evidence shows that they are Garbage.
Pretty much like you!!!
@137 Mike
Thank you for that breath of fresh air here today.
#80 AACI Homedog on 04.22.23 at 7:52 pm
#53 Alois
As a retired appraiser, I’m staying in my single family dwelling as long as possible. If I had to live in a strata, I’d certainly rent, not own. Cheers..
.
M67bc
=================================
Thanks:
In hindsight…my in laws condo was bought in 2005 (built in 1986) has appreciated maybe 2X’s… Stratas are being approached by developers to sell.
Renting a Strata…may be more practical….but there is that feeling of possible eviction for many reasons which may make one lean to ownership..moreso if one sells one’s SFH , buys a strata with lots of cash left over from SFH sale.
As I posted before…we have self contained 2 BR suite in our home we could move into and rent the rest of the home.
Cheers:
#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.23.23 at 11:31 am
The kids don’t know yet.
Anywho looked at some charts zpr and reits are popping.
A good sign.
My grand parents left the Ukrain to escape the Natzis way way back.
My take is USA and Nato pressed this thing. All the docs are there. They put Putty in a spot. He does not want to be the west. It was avoidable..
Look out the window the West is a failing state.
Tent cities everywhere, massive drug problems unplayable massive debts.
Sort that out for me IDHAC. Thanks ahead of time bud.
Ukraine vs Russia
Where do you start?
One would have to do a deep dive into ancient history to make sense.
Lets discuss WW1 and WW2:
It was based on Economics. Germany was “formed” in the mid 1800’s, and became a major economic threat to the USA and Britain.
However, so was Russia an imposing power…hence NYC banker funded Bolshevik Revolution and Communism took over. Now Europe had a hostile nation ie Russia to its East.
Germany and Austria were planning on accessing the Baku oil fields in the Turkey area. This was accessible via a route through Yugoslavia. Recall Austrian Archduke was assassinated there…the plan by TPTB was to disrupt oil field access by fomenting a war, one which had various military alliances established.
NOTE these alliances appear to provide security “insurance”, but the downside is the members obligations to support members if the are under attack….and this has been shown numerous times as sucker bait. Now everbody dogpiles in.
Germany won WW1…but was betrayed at Versaille…forced to pay reparations, and destroyed the economy, TPTB had hoped WW1 would be enough, but realized they had to set yet another trap..which was the Danzig corridor where Germans where kept in an isolated portion of Poland and abused.
Germany tried to address the issue diplomatically . Poland was then tricked by Allies…who assured Poland that the Allies would have their backs if Germany invaded.
No..Germany invaded …the Allies sat back. That was the plan.
Pearl Harbour? The Allies had blockaded Japan and forced them to attack. (Keep in mind the USA stole Hawaii from the natives).
FDR had tried to bait Germany earlier..but Japan was allied with Germany and thus Germany was obligated to enter WW2 based on Pearl Harbour.
So,..these alliances are simply booby traps to create larger conflicts to cull the herd and make TPTB vultch BIG $$$$ on the proceedings.
Germany won WW1 and was forced into WW2? You are a scary person. – Garth
…saying that they’re the best :)
And, to a certain degree, that also applies to Canadians.
They are the same people who take all their information from one side of the press, and who think that everyone who throws some reason to their one-sided narrative is a troll, or somehow belonging to or admiring the other side. No amount of reason will change their opinion, as long as the story seems to stand. To them, even the Pentagon is on Putin’s side, as they reportedly also doubt the end results of the war :)
Sadly, they are proven wrong, that category will find other reasons to justify their (wrong) narrative, fully ignoring that they were obvious (or at least likely) from the beginning.
#130 Sail Away on 04.23.23 at 10:47 am
Yup this is a tradable market.
Elon has my utmost respect. He is in his own category and a brilliant thinker.
I’m a nitwit compared to him lol
IDK
You think that this acceptable? T2 doesn’t give a rats azz. Its not on all levels. Have a read.
WE do not not need EVs at this time…..the best option is hybrids.
I know a little bit about batteries and hi-Teck. I started building cell sites BEFORE the Motorola 9000 came out.
Sorry bud you have a one dimensional view.
https://relevantmagazine.com/culture/cobalt-mining-in-the-congo-relies-on-modern-day-slavery/
@#143 Alois
That was an embarrassment of revisionist history.
My only rebuttal is.
Just say “No!” to mushrooms…..
@ 136 Ponzius Pilatus
https://theconversation.com/why-many-ukrainians-speak-russian-as-their-first-language-190856
Not sure what your point is….
@#143 Alois
” Germany was obligated to enter WW2 based on Pearl Harbour.”
+++
While I find your version of history very amusing and your delusional conspiracy drivel worthy of an entire section in the “fiction” category of any local library…..
Simple facts speak for themselves.
Japan attacked Pearl Harbor in Dec 1941.
Germany attacked Poland in Sept 1939….
Thus Germany was already at war with everyone BUT the USA in Dec 1941.
Keep smoking the reefer….your smoke induced stories are hilarious.
contagion:
…me against my brother; me and my brother against the neighbour ;me and my brother and our neighbor against the next village; me and my brother and our neighbouring villages against outsiders.
==========================
,,,” blood feuds have economic origins, primarily against the backdrop of gray-market loans. Such loans are prevalent in certain parts of Arab society in Israel, where people find it hard to get loans from the usual banking systems. Neglect, poor infrastructure, and a profound lack of faith in the state – especially the police – mean that a dispute between neighbors or even a squabble between children can become a violent and prolonged war.
“For example, because there’s no infrastructure, you sometimes get a dozen homes hooked up to one electric meter,” Munir explains. “One woman told me she got an electricity bill for 14,000 shekels [$4,000]. She wanted to split the bill among all the households using her electricity, but one of them refused, saying point-blank that he wouldn’t pay. That’s how a feud starts between different families. And because there’s no one to deal with it, the conflict escalates and escalates.
“When I was a kid, there was one case when an entire family was almost wiped out because of a soccer match between children,” Munir adds.
“One boy wanted to play, an argument broke out, and one of the children slapped him. The boy who was slapped called his father, who went to the other family’s compound with his brothers and with a weapon and murdered the grandfather, the father, and a nephew. In the end, they were driven out of the city.
In a well-ordered society, a spat between children ends with a parent of one of them going to the other family’s home, sitting down to talk, and then the kids apologize. In the Arab community, it can end with gunshots.”
https://www.hashomrim.org/eng/israels-murder-capital
containment?
https://www.hashomrim.org/eng/police-close-11-bothels-in-south-tel-aviv-following-shomrim-n12-report
@#149 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.23.23 at 3:22 pm
@#143 Alois
” Germany was obligated to enter WW2 based on Pearl Harbour.”
+++
While I find your version of history very amusing and your delusional conspiracy drivel worthy of an entire section in the “fiction” category of any local library…..
Simple facts speak for themselves.
Japan attacked Pearl Harbor in Dec 1941.
Germany attacked Poland in Sept 1939….
Thus Germany was already at war with everyone BUT the USA in Dec 1941.
Keep smoking the reefer….your smoke induced stories are hilarious.
++++++++++++++++++
alois commentary is always good for a laugh.
@#139 For Ryan and Garth on 04.23.23 at 12:15 pm
You are both not only deluded but corrupt as well.
Russia has singled out the true leaders of USSA not Biden as an EXISTENTIAL THREAT to their society and country. Weather their country is good or bad it’s irrelevant.
The WEST DEGENERATE MODEL has ceased to be what people from normal countries aspires to become.
If I were you I would stick to the kindergarten financial level advice you generously douse on unsuspecting victims.
Still mocking intelligent people who preferred not to take experimental genetic treatment after scientific evidence shows that they are Garbage.
Pretty much like you!!!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
lmao.
you forget to take your meds today?
#139 For Ryan and Garth on 04.23.23 at 12:15 pm
No doubt the loser comment of the day, hypocrite self projection is off the charts. Said blogger is too dim and unimaginative to come up with a moniker of his own, which is unfortunate.
Can’t spell, can’t form sentences… I’m getting a vibe of anger rising from addiction and later stage alcoholism? Brain damage from Vodka in particular, sounds right. Reaffirms that the mind is a terrible thing to waste.
#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.23.23 at 2:55 pm
@#143 Alois
That was an embarrassment of revisionist history.
My only rebuttal is.
Just say “No!” to mushrooms….
====================
Crowdie..
I thought we were buddies….
Ponzie and I were going to take you out for a few brewskies ?
Rain check?
Wazzup?
‘Putin’s cashier’?
https://www.icij.org/investigations/russia-archive/feel-good-story-trumpeted-putins-donation-to-elderly-teacher-a-prominent-russian-billionaire-actually-paid/
Great post
The US Military has been told to prepare for war by the end of the year. Blinken has been instructing Zelensky to hold on until NATO is ready. The Trump indictment and late schedule for next appearance are clearly a diversion. My sources have made very clear, they are preparing for war and it will be preparation by the end of this year .
It appears they will start WWIII ahead of the 2024 Presidential Election to keep Biden in place. They need him in the office to control Foreign Policy.
They are spending recklessly and pushing with digital currency at lighting speed. Then they will CANCEL paper currency and force you to take to the bank and declare it.
Stay tuned …