The Russian Air Force’s Old Su-27 Fighters Had A Lucky War. Until This Week.

The Russian air force’s 38th Fighter Aviation Regiment, flying from Belbek air base near Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea, has had a fairly lucky war.

Despite being just 150 miles from the front line in southern Ukraine and frequently being the target of Ukrainian raids, for 25 months the 38th Regiment’s supersonic Sukhoi Su-27 interceptors escaped major damage in Russia’s wider war on Ukraine.

That dramatically changed this week. It’s possible the 38th Regiment just lost two of the roughly two-dozen 1980s- and ’90s-vintage Su-27Ps and Su-27SMs it flew as of 2021. And the Russians themselves are to blame for one of the losses.

A massive Ukrainian missile raid on Sunday, which hit four Russian warships and a navy headquarters in Sevastopol, also hit Belbek. According to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies, some of the 40 air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles and ground-launched Neptune cruise missiles the Ukrainians launched toward Sevastopol struck 38th Regiment facilities.

The attack “resulted in the destruction of one Su-27 fighter jet and damage to two others,” CDS reported.

If confirmed, that would be the Russian military’s first Su-27 loss in the current, wider war. Which makes sense. While air force Sukhoi Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35 fighters strike Ukrainian targets, the older Su-27s have stayed farther from the fighting.

The 38th Regiment’s most notable operation so far in the wider war was that time, in March 2023, when it sortied Su-27s to intercept a U.S. Air Force Reaper drone patrolling in international air space over the Black Sea. The Sukhois dumped fuel on the drone before apparently accidentally running into it. The Reaper crashed; the Su-27s safely landed.

The 38th Regiment continued to fly defensive air patrols over Sevastopol, apparently trying—and clearly failing—to blunt the frequent Ukrainian missile raids targeting the Black Sea Fleet’s main anchorage in Crimea. Ukrainian missiles and explosive drone boats have struck more than a dozen Russian ships out of the roughly three dozen the Black Sea Fleet operated before the wider war.

The missile raids clearly have made the Russian air force surface-to-air missile batteries in Crimea jumpy. These batteries themselves also are top targets for Ukrainian missiles. On or just before Thursday, an air-defense unit fired on a 38th Regiment Su-27 taking off from Belbek.

A video that circulated on social media depicts the jet spinning toward the ground, on fire. Reportedly, the pilot ejected and survived. Still, the Ukrainian defense ministry “should start awarding medals to some Russian SAM operators,” quipped Jakub Janovsky, an analyst with Oryx, which tallies wartime vehicle losses.

The Russians might struggle to make good their Su-27 losses. There are just 40 or so basic Su-27s left across the Russian inventory as newer Su-30s, -34s and -35s have become the dominant types. And whatever old Su-27s the Russians have placed in storage reportedly have suffered extensive corrosion.